G’day from New York,
First and second serve statistics have formed the bedrock of match data since official stats were first recorded in 1991. They include when the serve doesn’t come back – from an ace or a return error – and also when the serve does come back. It includes all possibilities, and that’s just fine.
But now we can filter out aces and return errors, and isolate serve/baseline performance when the return does come back in play. I love it!!
This new stat will certainly be influenced by the serve, but it goes further than that. It’s about baseline performance “behind” the first and second serve.
It’s only natural that when you hit a quality serve, the return will be a little weaker, and the server can enjoy being more on offense with their Serve +1 groundstroke. But this serve stat speaks much more to how good the groundstrokes are immediately following the serve.
Let’s examine #1 seed Zverev’s round 1 victory last night against Lorenzo Sonego to see what we can learn.
#1 Alexander Zverev def. L. Sonego 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(7), 7-5, 6-4.
Zverev came within two points of defeat serving at 4-5, 30-30 in the fourth set. In many ways, this was an incredibly tight match that Sonego almost stole in four sets. Keep in mind that Zverev only won six more points (175-169) overall, with the length of the match almost hitting five hours (4:53). It was a late-night barn burner that finished just before 2.00 am.
Total Points Won
- A. Zverev = 50.9% (175/344)
- L. Sonego = 49.1% (169/344)
This is good to initially establish. The big picture was incredibly close. But there were several small battles around the court where Zverev dominated. The baseline was one of them – especially when the return came back in play.
Baseline Points Won
- A. Zverev = 49% (87/176)
- L. Sonego = 35% (57/163)
These are very dominant numbers for the number one seed. He won THIRTY more points from the baseline than Sonego. The Italian came to the net 71 times in five sets, winning 72% (51/71). Sonego owned the front of the court. Zverev owned the back.
Alexander Zverev
1st Serves
- 1st Serves Won = 77% (79/102)
- 1st Serves Won When Returned = 65% (43/66)
Zverev did really well winning baseline points behind his first serve. Not much of a drop off here, and to be expected behind his dominant first serve.
2nd Serves
- 2nd Serves Won = 55% (29/53)
- 2nd Serves Won When Returned = 57% (21/37)
Zverev’s second serve performance didn’t fall off at all when the return came back in play. The quality of his second serve is helping out his Serve +1 groundstrokes.
Lorenzo Sonego
1st Serves
- 1st Serves Won = 73% (91/124)
- 1st Serves Won When Returned = 59% (47/80)
Zverev won 65% of 1st serve points when the return came back in play. Sonego was quite a bit lower at 59%.
2nd Serves
- 2nd Serves Won = 48% (31/65)
- 2nd Serves Won When Returned = 41% (21/51)
This is where Zverev baked Sonego. Zverev was at 57% here. Sonego was well below that at 41%. Now we are starting to get a really good feel for how Zverev is still in the tournament, and Sonego isn’t.
SUMMARY
Here are 2026 tournament averages so we can compare Zverev and Sonego to the bigger picture.
2026 ROLAND GARROS MEN
- 1st Serve Won When Return In Play = 56.3%
- 2nd Serve Won When Return In Play = 47.9%
2026 WIMBLEDON MEN
- 1st Serve Won When Return In Play = 56.2%
- 2nd Serve Won When Return In Play = 45.1%
2026 US OPEN ROUND 1
- 1st Serve Won When Return In Play = 55.0%
- 2nd Serve Won When Return In Play = 46.0%
The first thing that stands out is that you are going to be underwater (under 50%), hitting a second serve, and staying back to rally. It’s a tough way to earn a living!
Zverev was at 65% 1st serve points won when the return came back in play. That’s considerably higher than the round one tournament average of 55.0%. And winning 57% of baseline points after his second serve is significantly higher than the 46% tournaent average so far in New York.
At the end of this week, this statistic will be added to the new Benchmarks product that has 400+ averages included. Adding this one will help coaches and players all over the world understand our game a little bit better.
Lastly, here’s the breakdown of rally length won/lost between Zverev and Sonego
0-4 Shots
- Zverev 127 (-1)
- Sonego 128
They basically played almost dead even here.
5-8 Shots
- Zverev 42 (+18)
- Sonego 24
- These are typically short BASELINE rallies. This is where Zverev excelled, winning baseline points after his serve.
9+ Shots
- Zverev 6 (-11)
- Soneg0 17
- Sonego convincingly won this battle, but there are not enough points here to make a real difference.
Let’s all put this match metric on our radar moving forward. It’s a good one.