Hey paid members! The final tour event of the year is here!
It's been a weird and bumpy road but we're finally left with eight players in Fort Worth, Texas, to contest the WTA Finals.
With the round-robin looming, we have two groups...
Tracy Austin Group
Iga Swiatek
Coco Gauff
Caroline Garcia
Daria Kasatkina
Nancy Richey Group
Ons Jabeur
Jessica Pegula
Maria Sakkari
Aryna Sabalenka
We're here to tell you how each player ended up here and which players (besides Swiatek) should be considered a threat.
Enjoy!
Tracy Austin Group
1. Iga Swiatek
Oh Iga.
Do we need to tell you much about her year? A 37-match win-streak, French Open and US Open titles, WTA 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Doha, Miami and Rome... Any of that ringing any bells?
To boot, Swiatek is 19-1 against the other competitors that will take to the court in Fort Worth, that one loss coming to Caroline Garcia in Warsaw after spending only a few days warming up on clay.
Plus, 13 of those 19 wins were on hard-courts.
Brutal numbers for the rest of the field.
Still, indoor hard-courts are not Swiatek's forté. Where other players like Gauff, Jabeur, Sakkari, Garcia and Sabalenka will be able to deliver big enough first-serves to capitalise on the steady quicker conditions, Swiatek's first-serve won't be that advantageous. Plus her second-serves can be taken earlier without the unpredictability of clay shooting the ball off in any which direction - there just aren't many players that can capitalise on it.
Caro Garcia is probably going to be the one to watch in Swiatek's group stage. She could repeat her stellar returning from Warsaw... though she can be a little hot and cold.
Iga's the favourite, she always is. But not by a country mile in these conditions against this competition.
Chances: 8/10.
4. Coco Gauff
A great year for Coco Gauff.
She secured the world #1 spot in the doubles, she reached the final of the French Open and a handful of noteworthy quarterfinals including the US Open, Toronto, Guadalajara and Doha.
But, despite getting to world #4, Gauff won no titles and her record against the rest of the field is a little dicey. Her only win was against Aryna Sabalenka in Toronto whilst eight losses came to Swiatek (three times), Pegula, Jabeur, Garcia and Sakkari (twice).
Gauff has handily dealt with players she should be beating this year (33-8 against non-top-20 players) but has struggled to come up with something extra against some of the biggest hitters in the world1.
Of course this is the first of many great years for Gauff but, regardless of the conditions, her record would suggest she's not a favourite.
Chances: 5/10.
6. Caroline Garcia
The comeback player of the year?
From #74 in Australia to #6 at the final event of the year, Caroline Garcia took a while to get going...
When she did though, whoah boy.
Garcia is the only player this year to win titles on all three surfaces (Cincinnati, Warsaw and Bad Homburg) handing Swiatek her first defeat on clay since the 2021 French Open enroute to the title in Warsaw. She used the momentum from Cincinnati to tear her way to the US Open semifinals where nerves seemed to get the better of her.
Three events later and Garcia has just the one win under her belt.
Hm.
It's honestly difficult to know how to feel about her chances. Despite winning in Cincinnati, it will be hard for Garcia to time her extremely aggressive returns sweetly in quicker conditions. We also know she's prone to hot and cold spells.
I'm going to rate her chances a bit because she still has the potential to beat Iga where others maybe don't. Overall though, I'm not overly confident in Caro.
Chances: 6/10.
8. Daria Kasatkina
Good to see Daria Kasatkina make the cut as it feels thoroughly deserved. Kasatkina made the semifinals of Rome and the French Open before winning titles in San Jose and Granby.
Though Kasatkina has achieved plenty in 2022, I can't see her enjoying the conditions in Texas. Her serve will be of little use indoors and all of her opponent's have the power to outhit the Russian (particularly Swiatek whose game is basically Kasatkina's squared).
I'm sorry to say I'm going to have to underrate Kasatkina... Maybe she'll surprise me?
Chances: 3/10.
Nancy Richey Group
2. Ons Jabeur
Who else is excited to watch Ons Jabeur at the WTA Finals? She's played once since reaching the US Open final so I finally a bit Ons-deprived.
Jabeur has earned her spot as the second-best player in the world. She preceded her US Open final run with a tear to the Wimbledon final making her 11-1 throughout the entirety of the grass season. She also won her first WTA 1000 title in Madrid and made the final in Rome.
At the same time, she may have made the final of the US Open but Ons is arguably least comfortable on a hard-court. Sure, her first-serve is good enough to benefit from the conditions and both her groundstrokes are great when they're firing but she can't fall back on the variety and finesse in her game as much as she can on a natural surface.
I guess I'm not as Ons-crazy as I would have expected going into the WTA Finals. She could surprise me but I'm going to underplay her chances.
Chances: 6/10.
3. Jessica Pegula
Where Swiatek and Jabeur have clearly been the best players this year, Jessica Pegula has undoubtedly been the third-best.
The consistency in her game earned her consistency of results as she reached the quarterfinals in three of the four majors (lost to the eventual champion all three times), reached the final in Madrid and won her first WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara.
I digress though - Pegula doesn't have a ton of advantages in these conditions. Her precise, caressed groundstrokes, net play and slices all worked a treat at altitude as others flummoxed in the conditions. Her serve and groundstrokes will be a little tempered compared to the others in this group however as power is rewarded at this venue.
Still, we need look no further than last year for the effects of form. Anett Kontaveit had no right making the final of Guadalajara on paper given her game wasn't suited to the conditions at all - yet winning bred winning on that occasion.
Unfavourable conditions, great form... This combo has left me feeling she's got about the same chance as Jabeur.
Chances: 6/10.
5. Maria Sakkari
The dark horse for the WTA Finals?
Maria Sakkari hasn't quite made it to a title this year but, on the whole, she has consistently gone deep in tournaments. Finals in Guadalajara and Indian Wells are the most commendable whilst St. Petersburg and Parma were also decent. She also reached the semis in Doha and Berlin...
But yeah, no titles.
With the pressure off in the group stages however, you've got to feel as though Sakkari's serve and forehand combo could make her extremely difficult to beat in these conditions. She was insanely good in St. Petersburg at the start of the year. If she can channel her clear drive to succeed, I don't see why we don't see a similar performance from her.
Dark horse? Maybe not to win.
To make a deep run though? Absolutely.
Chances: 7/10.
7. Aryna Sabalenka
Given the horrendous start to Aryna Sabalenka's year, it's not been a terrible season all things considered.
Sabalenka reached the semifinals of the US Open, Rome and Cincinnati with her only two finals coming in Stuttgart and s'Hertogenbosch.
Still... No titles.
That's three qualifiers that haven't won titles going into the WTA Finals.
2022 Gauff (lost one final)
2022 Sakkari (lost four finals)
2022 Sabalenka (lost two finals)
Since the format of the WTA Finals changed to round-robin in 2002, there have been six other instances of this happening.
2021 Sakkari (lost one final)
2021 Pliskova (lost three finals)
2019 Svitolina (didn't reach a final until WTA Finals)
2017 Venus (lost three finals)
2008 Kuznetsova (lost five finals)
2005 Dementieva (lost two finals).]
Odd to say the least and supportive of claims that some of the WTA's top players have been unreliable this year.
Sabalenka is certainly one of them. Still, one of the most interesting stats from her season is that she has played the highest percentage of deciding sets this year - in fact, she's the only player in the top-50 to play more deciding set matches than straight set matches.
Basically, Aryna's shown a lot of grit this year. She hasn't played her best tennis a lot of the time but she's fought her hardest, sometimes coming out the right side of a dog-fight to get a great result.
The outcomes of many of her matches will lie in her hands. I think she's got plenty fight left in her yet.
Chances: 6/10.
Interestingly this point is further supported by the fact Gauff has played the highest percentage of straight-set matches of anyone in the top-50 this year. She's winning easily against lesser players and waning quickly against better players.