The US Open gets underway TODAY!

I've done plenty of previews of the draw (with Damian Kust on the podcast, with John Silk at Talking Tennis, with Vansh Vermani at Tennis and Bagels) and briefly went over some of my dark horse picks...

We're going to elaborate on some of those picks in this article! Three men's and three women's - enjoy!

Men's Dark Horses

1. Andy Murray

Okay, it's no secret I'm a huge Andy fan... I promise I can justify my pick though!

Andy's first-round opponent is Francisco Cerundolo. Fran's forehand is a thing of beauty - though he benefits from a little more time to set up the shot, the pace of the thing translates to all surfaces. Cerundolo is also particularly adept at redirecting the pace of the first-serve, something that would stand him in good stead against an underpar spot-server on a hard-court.

Now every Andy fan worth their salt knows Andy has his good and bad days on serve, namely in the number of first-serves he's putting in the court. This is because Andy goes for his spots appropriately setting him up for the +1 shot. We sometimes forget to give Andy plaudits for his first-serve because he has those days where he can't land it - when he does though, he is a great spot-server! In other words, Andy's serve will be a more important shot than it would be in other match-ups.

Andy also has the variety to potentially mess with the Cerundolo forehand as, although it is a weapon on the clay, it isn't as topspin-y a shot as other huge forehands on the surface. Keeping the ball low and short to change up rallies could be effective.

On a decent serving day, Andy absolutely has a chance in this match-up. One of the more forgiving seeds he could have been drawn!

In the second-round, John Millman is no cakewalk but his gamestyle is similar to Andy's without the serving power and variety from the baseline. Another decent match-up for Andy.

Finally, Matteo Berrettini is one of the best third-rounds Andy could have hoped for. It was close in Stuttgart before Andy sustained an injury in their third-set suggesting he can keep up with the Italian in service holds. If it goes to a rally on a hard-court, there is no reason why Andy shouldn't be able to outlast Berrettini in a backhand cross-court battle in a similar manner to most top-10 players Berrettini has faced over the last three years1.

A fourth-round for Andy would be a win... We're getting ahead of ourselves though. I'll stay quiet!

2. Emil Ruusuvuori

Emil Ruusuvuori is yet to make a Grand Slam third-round. Will that change here in New York?

It's gotta happen sooner or later. The Finn hits his forehand about as cleanly and with as much venom as anyone else on the tour. There are a few losses this year that make it too big a weapon to ignore...

• Five-set loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime at the Australian Open. Despite leading two sets to one and winning more points than the Canadian, Ruusuvuori lost in the second-round in Oz. That was a harsh learning curve.

• Final loss to Joao Sousa in Pune. Despite going down valiantly in the final, Ruusuvuori didn't drop a set enroute to his first ATP final.

• Third-set tiebreak loss to Jannik Sinner in Miami. After holding three match points, Sinner squeaked passed Ruusuvuori to deny him his fifth top-20 win.

Though he lost these matches, Ruusuvuori played out of his skin in all of these matches/runs. The latent power of his game belongs amongst the best - a breakthrough is just a slight improvement in mental strength away.

If he gets through Draper in the first-round (who he defeated at Queen's this year), he'll get a rematch with FAA. Ruusuvuori has the firepower to win that match - his ability to come back stronger after being battered and bruised maybe suggests he's ready to put together the mental performance required to get the win...

It's a matter of when not if... So why not now?

3. John Isner

Tucked away in the bottom half of the draw, 37 year-old John Isner is probably feeling pretty chuffed with his draw.

He takes on Federico Delbonis in the first-round, a player with a historically woeful hard-court record, and faces the winner of Holger Rune and Peter Gojowczyk, the former on a decline in form due to physical issues and the latter lacking in the firepower required to make him the favourite against Isner.

Cam Norrie is where things get tricky in the third-round. There's no way Isner's the favourite in this match-up but you never know - Cam isn't the best at holding his serve in the top-10 and, given the quicker conditions, Isner might be able to sneak through on one or two breaks of serve by sheer virtue of being close to unbreakable.

Though it's a big ask to get through Cam, if he does, he could be against Rublev or Shapovalov. Shapo struggles with the block return failing to find the court as often as he should for someone of his ranking and Isner holds a miraculous 3-0 head-to-head against Rublev...

Again, beating Cam would be an upset but the rest of the early rounds actually look favourable for Isner. Third US Open quarterfinal incoming?

Women's Dark Horses

1. Clara Tauson

I picked Clara Tauson to win the US Open on Talking Tennis.

Whilst that was a little tongue-in-cheek to stress the openness of the women's draw, she is not somebody to be forgotten about. Tauson's groundstrokes are made for hard-courts. She loves to take the ball on from up high with flat powerful strokes built for overpowering her opponents on quicker courts, particularly on her backhand side.

Two runs this year come to mind.

• She made the Australian Open third-round this year after jamming up the forehand of Anett Kontaveit. She went on to lose to Danielle Collins, the eventual finalist, 7-5 in the third set.

• Tauson forced Iga Swiatek to win in three sets during the Pole's title run in Indian Wells. Up until Tauson kinda ran out of steam, she was able to frighten Swiatek with bulldozing shots.

Tauson's been out of the game for a few months but she's been given a reprieve in Garbine Muguruza to kick things off, a player who has been in desperate need of a good win recently. Following that, I'd say Linda Fruhvirtova is a little too young notch the win and Petra Kvitova's form is no guarantee in the third if she is literally feeling the heat.

We don't know how Clara Tauson will turn up but if she's on, it would be foolish to forget about her.

2. Luidmila Samsonova

I can't stop going on about Luidmila Samsonova.

I've been in love with her game ever since watching her play arguably the highest quality match anyone played against Iga Swiatek during her 37-match win-streak.

Her first-serve is exceptionally difficult to neutralise possessing the variety required on this shot to keep her opponent guessing. Her second-serve though... it is insanely heavy, loaded with topspin to put her top of the leaderboard this year in terms of second-serve points won.

And her second-serve isn't the best shot she's got. Samsonova's forehand is big enough to level Arthur Ashe, power that is certain to be a nightmare for any player.

Oh and did I mention she's on a ten-match win-streak? In fact, she only dropped 18 games in her title run last week in Cleveland.

Her peaks are starting to outnumber her troughs. If she can maintain her level...

• She should be fine in the first-round against Sara Bejlek. Facing a qualifier in the first-round might give her a chance to settle in the conditions too.

• She has the power to defeat Leylah Fernandez though admittedly this is a tougher match-up than she'd have hoped for in the second-round. This has third-set tiebreak win written all over it...

• She should be in far greater form than Barbora Krejcikova (if Krejcikova makes it that far)

• She has the power (similar to Tauson in Australia) to rush Anett Kontaveit's forehand in the fourth-round (Karolina Muchova would be more of a worry but zero guarantee the Czech makes it that far).

I really don't know how far she goes in this tournament... Don't sleep on Samsonova!

3. Qinwen Zheng

And finally, Queenwen Zheng 👑

Many of you will remember Zheng from her fourth-round defeat to Iga Swiatek in Paris. She led by a set before period pain inhibited her play in the final two sets...

She was fantastic in that match - extremely easy power with plenty of margin off her forehand and a fantastic first-serve that was frequently unreturnable (though she misses the court with it more often than anyone else in the top-50).

Qinwen Zheng has got everything required to be in the top-10 - she just needs to put it all together, namely in improving that first-serve-in percentage.

If she can put it all together...

• Jelena Ostapenko could struggle to tee off on enough of Zheng's serves to trouble her whilst conversely giving the Chinese enough opportunities on her own serve due to her frequently ineffective first-serve delivery.

• If Zheng gets to the second-round, we can consider her game locked in. Anastasia Potapova is unlikely to have the maturity of game required to get through.

• Amanda Anisimova is another great returner that could struggle against Zheng if she's getting first-serves fired at her left, right and centre.

... and finally, a rematch with Iga.

Swiatek struggled to tame Zheng's serve and forehand combo at the French - why wouldn't she struggle in conditions that don't suit her? I think Zheng has the execution required to keep points short against Swiatek on fast hard-courts - it's difficult for me not to make her the favourite in a hypothetical situation where she's already got three matches under her belt.

Is this where Queenwen's reign begins? 👑