I'll be honest...
I've been sleeping on Francisco Cerundolo - and I bet you have too.
When the Argentinian made it to a Masters semifinal in Miami, I chalked it down to a little luck.
I mean this was a guy that excelled near-exclusively on the Golden Swing, the South American portion of the tour near the start of the year. Having won his maiden title in his home town of Buenos Aires in 2021, Cerundolo went an entire year before winning another ATP match, seemingly not-so-coincidentally at the same tournament.
When this "clay-court specialist" troubled Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon for the best part of four sets, I chalked it down to a bad day at the office for the Spaniard.
But here we are post-Wimbledon and I'm sat eating some humble pie. Fran won his second ATP title last week in Bastad and has immediately backed it up with a run to the semifinals of Hamburg (he lost to Musetti looking a little tired).
Why is it such a big deal? Well not only has he beaten six top-50 players in that time, he's beaten top-10 players Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev.
It's a mini-streak I just can't ignore. Here's why Cerundolo is on the rise.
Something To Write Home About
Two top-10 wins? Is that really something to write home about?
... Absolutely! Cerundolo has racked up a second top-10 win in only his fourth meeting with a top-10 player.
That doesn't happen often.
For reference, here's how many top-10 meetings it took the current top-10 to get their second top-10 wins.
Medvedev: 13 matches (defeated Wawrinka and Tsitsipas).
Zverev: 11 matches (defeated Federer and Berdych).
Nadal: 2 matches (defeated Costa and Moya)1.
Tsitsipas: 6 matches (defeated Goffin and Thiem).
Ruud: 10 matches (defeated Berrettini and Schwartzman).
Alcaraz: 5 matches (defeated Berrettini and Tsitsipas).
Djokovic: 7 matches (defeated Puerta and Gonzalez).
Rublev: 11 matches (defeated Dimitrov and Thiem).
Auger-Aliassime: 6 matches (defeated Tsitsipas twice).
Sinner: 4 matches (defeated Goffin and Tsitsipas).
Cerundolo got his second top-10 win before eight of the current top-10! Obviously this isn't the best barometer for future greatness or anything but it's still a good indication that what Cerundolo has achieved is no mean feat.
Watching back the matches also, it's clear these wins were far from flukes.
Cerundolo's Game
Cerundolo has gotten a lot of hate for his game...
... and quite frankly it's completely unjust.
Fran doesn't just make balls. There's two areas of his game that are begging to be acknowledged.
The Run-Around Forehand
The forehand struck from the ad-court (also known as the run-around forehand) is the clay-courters bread and butter.
Many strike it well but honestly Cerundolo's is exceptional from this corner. His ability to create space round the ball and really explode from behind it is superior to vast majority of players on tour.
Look at how well-equipped he was to get the first strike in against Rublev.
It's difficult to gauge the pace Cerundolo is generating from these GIFs but it's relatively huge.
The interesting thing about Cerundolo using this weapon to take down both Rublev and Ruud is that this is a staple of those top-10 player's games. Stay strong on the backhand cross-court, look for the first opportunity to find the run-around forehand and dictate play from there.
Two of the biggest forehands on the tour felled by the new forehand on the block.
(Forehand) Return of First-Serve
If we wanna get really statistcal, the first-serve return is where Cerundolo excels.
This year, only Schwartzman beat Cerundolo in this category with a 36.9% win-rate on first-serve return to Cerundolo's 34.7%. To put that into context, taking every surface into account, that's better than Baez, Nadal, De Minaur and Alcaraz!
Unlike Schwartzman, Baez and Alcaraz however, Cerundolo prefers to use his forehand wing to attack the first-serve return. He has fantastic timing in this department and is often able to send it back to the returners toes with interest without having to abridge his swing.
Against Rublev in particular, who doesn't spot-serve quite as well as his top-10 peers but generates plenty of pace, Cerundolo was able to make the first-serve look second-rate.
Francisco Cerundolo: Improved Player Analysis
Cerundolo sports a serious weapon good enough to take down seriously good players and excels at returning serve, the area of the game that often sets the best from the rest in the modern era of tennis.
Ironically for someone over 6 feet, it's his serve that will need a little bit of work but I've no doubt that'll come with time. The Argentine is only 23 years old after all.
I've said it once, I'll say it again - don't make the same mistake I made. Do not sleep on Francisco Cerundolo!
This guy is here to stay.
I mean did we really expect anything less from Rafa?